Perspectives and expert analysis on managing the decline of fossil fuel production.

There is a growing recognition among researchers, economists, civil society representatives, and governments that addressing fossil fuel supply will be key to achieving global climate goals, and that, if intentionally managed, this transition can happen in a way that advances human rights and social justice.
The following collection of resources provides an overview of the perspectives and expert analysis that shape this understanding, with a focus on oil and gas supply.

Global Statements

The Lofoten Declaration: Climate Leadership Requires a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
Issued in August 2017, and now signed by 500 civil society representatives spanning more than 70 countries, this statement declares that, “[I]t is the urgent responsibility and moral obligation of wealthy fossil fuel producers to lead in putting an end to fossil fuel development and to manage the decline of existing production.”
Not a Penny More: Declaration on Climate Finance
In December 2017, over 80 world-renowned economists “call for an immediate end to investments in new fossil fuel production and infrastructure, and encourage a dramatic increase in investments in renewable energy.”
Climate Action Network International: The Need for Restrictions on Fossil Fuel Supply
The international network representing over 1,300 global civil society organizations in more than 120 countries calls for “action by governments to manage a just and equitable phaseout of fossil fuel supply by leaving coal, oil, and gas in the ground.”

Research & Analysis

How Long Does it Take to Build an LNG Export Terminal in the United States?
Global Energy Monitor, April 2022
Despite a renewed push by the US government and LNG industry to advance proposed export terminals, new projects are not a viable solution to Europe’s near-term gas needs. Analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows that such facilities have typically taken three to five years to build in the United States. As GEM has written in its March 2022 report Gas Run Aground, by the time new projects come online, they will be competing with new and cheaper sources of gas from suppliers such as Qatar, and new and cheaper renewables now being fast-tracked in the European Union (EU). LNG projects commissioned later this decade will also be at odds with tightening climate commitments and calls from the IPCC and IEA for emissions to peak this decade.
Energy Policy Tracker: Tracking public finance for energy around the world
Multiple GGON partners, July 2020
The Energy Policy Tracker database is updated on a weekly basis, to provide the latest information about COVID-19 government policy responses from a climate and energy perspective. The analysis provides a detailed overview of the public finance flows as determined by recovery packages across the G20. Filter by country, energy type, finance mechanisms, and oher categories to see, at a glance, what types of measures countries are implementing to tackle the crisis and shape our future energy system.
Gas Bubble 2020: Tracking Global LNG Infrastructure
Global Energy Monitor, July 2020
This report provides the results of a worldwide survey of LNG terminals completed in May 2020 by Global Energy Monitor. Key findings include a doubling in global spending on new LNG terminals, uncertainty for pending oil and gas projects due to a pandemic-related worldwide decrease in demand, and increased public scrutiny of the social and environmental impacts of LNG and related development.
Gambling on Gas: Risks Grow for Japan's $20 Billion LNG Financing Spree
Global Energy Monitor, June 2020
This report explores the $23+ billion in new liquefied natural gas infrastructure being built to support Japan’s growing reliance on LNG imports. Continued investment in the expansion of LNG infrastructure, it suggests, should be considered incompatible with Japan’s goals with respect to its own security, climate protection, economic performance, and fiscal responsibility.
Gas at a Crossroads: Why the EU Should Not Continue to Expand its Gas Infrastructure
Global Energy Monitor, February 2020
This report expands on Global Energy Monitor’s survey of proposed natural gas infrastructure, focusing on the prospect on continued growth in the European Union. According to GEM’s survey, completing all the gas infrastructure now under construction would add more than 30% to the EU’s gas import capacity. The report concludes that, for the goal of facilitating a rapid transition to a climate-friendly energy system and for the goal of avoiding risky investments, a major new expansion of fossil gas infrastructure in Europe should not be undertaken.
The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C
Stockholm Environment Institute, IISD, ODI, Climate Analytics, CICERO, and UNEP, December 2019
This report addresses the necessary winding down of the world’s production of fossil fuels in order to meet climate goals. It is the first assessment of countries' plans and outlooks for fossil fuel production. The report finds countries are on track to produce 59% more oil and 70% more gas by 2030 than would be consistent with a 1.5 degree pathway. It follows in the footsteps of the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report.
Oil, Gas and The Climate: An Analysis of Oil and Gas Industry Plans for Expansion and Compatibility with Global Emission Limits
Global Gas and Oil Network, December 2019
This report examines the oil and gas industry's expansion plans over the next five years, from 2020 to 2024. It finds the sector plans to invest USD 1.4 trillion into new extraction projects. This would lock in 148 gigatonnes of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions, equivalent to 1200 new US coal-fired power plants. The report reveals 85 percent of the expanded production is slated to come from the United States and Canada over that period. The other countries where the largest expansion is planned are Argentina, China, Norway, Australia, Mexico, UK, Brazil, Nigeria.
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Pipeline Bubble: North America Is Betting Over $1 Trillion on a Risky Fossil Infrastructure Boom
Global Energy Monitor, April 2019
This report reports that results of a newly completed survey of oil and gas pipelines by the Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker. It reveals that over half the oil and gas pipelines under development globally are in North America. Investors in these projects are at risk for two primary reasons: (1) Stigmatization on climate groups, as over 1,043 institutions have divested from fossil fuels; (2) Reliance on Asian growth, which may be undermined by competing suppliers or by increasingly competitive renewables.
The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
Oil Change International, September 2016
This study reveals that the potential carbon dioxide emissions from the oil, gas, and coal in the world's currently operating fields and mines would take the world beyond the climate limits agreed to in the Paris Agreement. To successfully transform our energy system to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, governments must manage the decline of fossil fuel production.
Supply-Side Climate Policy: The Road Less Taken
Stockholm Environment Institute, October 2015
This working paper explains the concept of supply-side climate policy. It finds that policies such as removal of producer subsidies, compensation of resource owners for leaving fuels “unburned,” or outright restrictions on resource development, could bring important benefits.
How the Paris Agreement Can Take on Fossil Fuel Supply
Stockholm Environment Institute, July 2018
This analysis examines the opportunities and growing appetite for tackling fossil fuel supply at the UN level.
G7 Fossil Fuel Subsidy Scorecard: Tracking the Phase-out of Fiscal Support and Public Finance for Oil, Gas, and Coal
Overseas Development Institute and partners, June 2018
The G7 fossil fuel subsidy scorecard tracks, for the first time, each G7 country’s progress in phasing out fossil fuel subsidies across seven indicators. Despite their numerous commitments, G7 governments have taken limited action to address fossil fuel subsidies, continuing to provide at least $100 billion per year.


News, resources, and analysis on the global path off of oil and gas.

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